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Neomercantilist Trends, Shifting Alliances and Natural Disasters

The latest Semafor Flagship newsletter from March 28, 2025, provides a snapshot of global events, highlighting interconnectedness and emerging tensions across various domains. The articles touch upon economic competition, geopolitical maneuvering, social crises, and cultural conflicts, offering a complex picture of the contemporary world order. This review analyzes the different aspects and implications of these news items, while connecting them to relevant scholarly literature.

1. Xi courts foreign CEOs: This article underscores the intricate relationship between economic growth and political stability in China. Xi Jinping’s attempt to reassure foreign investors reflects the economic challenges China faces, including slowing growth and deflation. His criticism of “individual countries” for “politicizing, instrumentalizing, weaponizing” trade is a clear reference to the United States’ trade policies. This situation aligns with scholarly work on neomercantilism and state capitalism, where the state plays a significant role in shaping economic activities and using them for political ends (Bremmer, 2010). China’s historical imposition of trade barriers, as noted by the former US trade representative, exemplifies the complexities of global trade negotiations and the persistent tension between rhetoric and practice in international economic relations (Gilpin & Gilpin, 2001).

  • Economic: Focuses on attracting foreign investment to bolster a slowing economy.
  • Political: Highlights geopolitical competition and China’s attempt to position itself as a defender of globalization against US protectionism.
  • Cultural: Implies a need for China to improve its image and build trust with international business communities after periods of strict regulations.
  • Social: Indirectly relates to the well-being of the Chinese population, which is affected by economic growth and stability.

2. US allies steel themselves: This article illustrates the destabilizing effects of unilateral trade policies on international alliances and the global economy. President Trump’s impending tariffs are causing global investors to adopt risk-averse strategies, signaling uncertainty and potential economic downturn. The comparison to the pandemic by a Federal Reserve official highlights the perceived severity of the situation. The hardening stances of traditional US allies like Canada and Japan underscore the erosion of trust and the potential for retaliatory measures, a dynamic often analyzed in studies of international political economy and alliance politics (Keohane & Nye, 2012). The Canadian Prime Minister’s statement that the “old relationship with the US is over” signifies a potential paradigm shift in transatlantic and North American relations.

  • Economic: Depicts the potential negative impacts of tariffs on global trade, investment, and economic stability.
  • Political: Shows the strain on US alliances and the potential for increased international tensions due to trade disputes.
  • Cultural: Reflects a shift in the perception of the US as a reliable partner among its closest allies.
  • Social: Could lead to job losses and economic hardship in affected countries due to trade disruptions.

3. Arctic militarization threats grow: This article highlights the growing geopolitical significance of the Arctic region due to its potential resource wealth and strategic location. The competition among Arctic-facing nations, including Russia, Canada, and the US, and even countries further afield like China, aligns with theories of resource competition and geopolitics (Klare, 2001). Russia’s concerns about NATO activities and Canada’s significant investment in its Arctic forces indicate an escalating security dilemma in the region. The controversy surrounding the US Vice President’s trip and potential annexation threats further exacerbates these tensions.

  • Economic: Focuses on the potential for access to and control of valuable oil and mineral reserves in the Arctic.
  • Political: Illustrates the increasing strategic importance of the Arctic and the potential for military build-up and conflict.
  • Cultural: Raises questions about sovereignty, indigenous rights, and the environmental impact of resource extraction in the Arctic.
  • Social: Could impact the livelihoods and traditional ways of life of indigenous communities in the Arctic region.

4. US pushes revised Ukraine deal: This article reveals the complex and potentially contentious nature of international mediation efforts in conflict zones. The US’s push for control over Ukraine’s future infrastructure and mineral investments raises concerns about neocolonialism and the potential for the peace deal to serve US economic interests. This situation can be analyzed through the lens of dependency theory and studies on post-conflict reconstruction (Collier, 2007). Ukraine’s frustration over Washington’s actions highlights the challenges of balancing national sovereignty with the need for international assistance. The Kremlin’s apparent satisfaction with the protracted dealmaking underscores the strategic advantages that can be gained from divisions and uncertainties in international negotiations.

  • Economic: Focuses on potential US control over Ukraine’s reconstruction and key industries.
  • Political: Highlights the complexities of international diplomacy and the potential for competing interests to undermine peace efforts.
  • Cultural: Could fuel resentment and distrust towards the US in Ukraine if the deal is perceived as exploitative.
  • Social: Impacts the future economic and social development of Ukraine and the well-being of its citizens.

5. Italy positions itself as a bridge: This article illustrates the role of middle powers in navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s offer to mediate between Europe and the US reflects the growing rift within the transatlantic alliance. The tensions arising from US trade curbs and criticisms of European defense spending align with scholarly discussions on transatlantic relations and burden-sharing within alliances (Walt, 1987). Meloni’s optimistic view of crisis as an opportunity suggests a proactive approach to diplomacy and a recognition of the need for dialogue and reconciliation.

  • Economic: Touches upon trade relations between the US and the EU.
  • Political: Highlights the growing divisions within the transatlantic alliance and Italy’s attempt to play a mediating role.
  • Cultural: Suggests a potential shift in the dynamics of the relationship between Europe and the US.
  • Social: Could influence public perceptions of the US and Europe in Italy and other countries.

6. Huge quake hits SEAsia: This article highlights the devastating social and humanitarian consequences of natural disasters. The earthquake in Southeast Asia, particularly affecting Myanmar, underscores the vulnerability of the region to seismic activity and the potential for significant loss of life and infrastructure damage. Myanmar’s rare appeal for international assistance indicates the scale of the disaster and the limitations of its own resources, a situation often studied in the context of disaster management and humanitarian aid (Barnett & Weiss, 2008). The potential for significant damage due to non-earthquake-resistant infrastructure highlights the importance of building codes and disaster preparedness.

  • Economic: Will likely have significant economic repercussions for the affected region due to infrastructure damage and loss of productivity.
  • Political: May necessitate international cooperation and aid efforts, potentially impacting Myanmar’s relationship with the international community.
  • Cultural: Highlights the resilience and vulnerability of communities in the face of natural disasters.
  • Social: Represents a major humanitarian crisis with significant loss of life, displacement, and suffering.

7. Macron calls for writer’s release: This article touches upon issues of freedom of expression, human rights, and international diplomacy. President Macron’s call for the release of the jailed French Algerian writer Boualem Sansal highlights the tensions between Algeria and its former colonial ruler, particularly concerning historical narratives and political dissent. Sansal’s imprisonment for “undermining national unity” after commenting on the Franco-Algerian border reflects the sensitivity of historical grievances and the limitations on free speech in some contexts. This situation aligns with scholarly work on postcolonial studies, human rights, and international relations (Said, 1993).

  • Economic: Not directly related, but political stability and human rights can indirectly impact a country’s economic development.
  • Political: Illustrates the complexities of diplomatic relations between France and Algeria.
  • Cultural: Concerns freedom of expression, historical narratives, and the role of intellectuals in society.
  • Social: Highlights issues of human rights and the treatment of political dissidents.

8. US Interior Secretary at World Economy Summit: This is an announcement of an upcoming event focused on global economic and geopolitical issues. It suggests a continued focus on these themes by the newsletter and the organizers of the summit.

9. US scientists look to Europe: This article highlights a potential reverse brain drain due to funding cuts and research restrictions in the US. The uncertainty surrounding federal funding under the new administration is prompting US scientists to consider relocating to Europe or Canada. This situation can be analyzed through the lens of science policy, economics of research and development, and migration studies (Stark, 2004). The efforts by European institutions to attract these scientists indicate a potential shift in global scientific leadership and the importance of government support for research and innovation.

  • Economic: Concerns the funding of scientific research and the potential economic impact of losing talented researchers.
  • Political: Reflects the influence of government policies on the scientific community and international competitiveness.
  • Cultural: Highlights the international nature of scientific collaboration and the mobility of researchers.
  • Social: Could impact the pace of scientific discovery and innovation in the US.

10. mRNA research under threat: This article raises concerns about the potential chilling effect of government rhetoric and policies on a promising area of medical research. The White House’s growing curbs on mRNA research, despite its success during the pandemic, could hinder future medical breakthroughs. This situation aligns with scholarly work on science and technology studies, health policy, and the politics of science (Jasanoff, 2005). The concerns expressed by scientists about the government “pulling the rug from under them” highlight the importance of a stable and supportive environment for scientific innovation.

  • Economic: Concerns the funding and future development of mRNA technology, which has significant economic potential.
  • Political: Illustrates the potential for political ideologies to influence scientific research and public health policy.
  • Cultural: Reflects a debate about the role of government in regulating and supporting scientific research.
  • Social: Could have significant implications for public health and the development of new treatments and vaccines.

Conclusion

This newsletter provides a diverse yet interconnected view of the global landscape. The articles highlight the increasing complexity of international relations, where economic competition, political maneuvering, and social issues are intertwined. The rise of new global powers, the shifting dynamics of alliances, the impact of technological advancements, and the challenges posed by social and environmental crises all contribute to an increasingly uncertain world order. Understanding these interconnected issues through the lens of relevant scholarly literature is crucial for navigating the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

Bibliography:

Barnett, M., & Weiss, T. G. (2008). Humanitarianism in question: Politics, power, ethics. Cornell University Press.

Bremmer, I. (2010). The end of the free market: Who wins the battle between states and corporations? Penguin.

Collier, P. (2007). The bottom billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford University Press. 

Gilpin, R., & Gilpin, J. M. (2001). Global political economy: Understanding the international economic order. Princeton University Press.  

Jasanoff, S. (2005). Designs on nature: Science and democracy in Europe and the United States. Princeton University Press.  

Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and interdependence. Longman.

Klare, M. T. (2001). Resource wars: The new landscape of global conflict. Henry Holt and Company.

Said, E. W. (1993). Culture and imperialism. Vintage.

Stark, O. (2004). Rethinking the brain drain. World Development, 32(1), 179-184.

Walt, S. M. (1987). The origins of alliances. Cornell University Press.

[Written, Researched, and Edited by Pablo Markin. Some parts of the text have been produced with the aid of Gemini, Google, Alphabet (March 29, 2025).]

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OpenEdition suggests that you cite this post as follows:
Pablo Markin (March 29, 2025). Neomercantilist Trends, Shifting Alliances and Natural Disasters. Open Economics Blog. Retrieved May 15, 2025 from https://doi.org/10.58079/13lhw


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